[J_746]

The relegation battle in Ligue 1 last season was a topic of interest for any football fan with two big clubs fighting the drop well into the advanced stages of the season. AJ Auxerre managed to pull themselves out and finish fairly respectably, however Saint Etienne, historically the most successful French league side, were less convincing and finished just outside of the drop zone with a less-than-respectable goal difference. This season, things could end up the same. As we enter the second half of the season, several teams who many would have expected to be safe and sound by this point, could find themselves dragged into a dog-fight at the bottom.

Beginning with the performances of the sides promoted from Ligue 2 last season who are usually amongst the favourites for the drop, Ligue 2 champions Lens are sitting in mid-table, but could find themselves pulled under. They have put in some decent performances this season which, if they are able to keep up, could see them safe in their return to Ligue 1. Lens went down with a strong side and managed to hold onto some of their better players. Their goal difference could also see them through. When teams in France are on a bad run, they usually go on a really bad run and some of the goal differences at the moment at the bottom are pitiful. I think Lens will be safe when all is said and done.

Moving on to the team who finished second, Montpellier. Montpellier have performed above each and every expectation this season as they sit in and continue to push for European spots rather than looking behind at the relegation battle. Earlier this week, they fell heavily (4-0) against Monaco, a side who they are competing with for a possible European spot. They do, however, manage to put in some good performances after being shaken up by other sides so I don't expect them to go on a bad run for too long. The signing of Emir Spahic in the centre of their defence was an inspired choice. Montpellier will be safe by some margin.

Boulogne managed to be promoted by finishing third in Ligue 2, which few had expected. Most would have placed Strasbourg (1 point behind) or Metz (3 points behind) as favourites for promotion but Boulogne managed to conjure up something special and won promotion as a result. They haven't been as prepared as the other clubs who were promoted and it shows in their league position. They are putting up a fight, but when it comes to relegation I don't think they'll have the power, presence, experience or personnel to be able to resist the drop. At present, they are not the worst team in the league (that being Grenoble) but they are not getting the results on a consistent basis to give any indication they'll be in Ligue 1 for more than this one season. Boulogne will be relegated.

Upsets with regards to cups, league wins and relegations weren't the norm in Ligue 1 until a few seasons ago when things began to get exciting and shaken up. Now, it is very normal to find unexpected teams fighting relegation or pushing for things they weren't expected to at first (see Saint Etienne & Montpellier). This season, like last, we could see some big sides fighting relegation.

Saint Etienne are one such team. Historically, they have won the most titles of any Ligue 1 side and have had a few European runs in their storied past. Of late, they haven't been as good as people think they are. Last season many had expected Saint Etienne to push for the Champions League spots with a squad featuring some eperienced players and some very gifted youngsters. The reality was much different. Manager Alain Perrin couldn't get the attacking players firing and the defence was fairly shambolic. They still have these players (minus Bafetimbi Gomis who departed for rivals Lyon in summer), but they have put a lot of time and money into the attack. Their performances have stuttered with them unable to put together a good run of form on a consistent basis with the odd win here and there the only talking point. What works in their favour is that they have a new manager in charge, one who is inexperienced as a manager in his own right after being assistant to Perrin at several clubs in the past. Saint Etienne will not be safe from the drop.

Le Mans are another side who were with Saint Etienne last season in the relegation battle. There is not much to say about them as they are a lower-mid table side in Ligue 1 who only show signs of being better than this on the odd season here and there. Le Mans will not be safe from the drop.

Two fairly surprising candidates at this stage are Nice and Toulouse. Nice are a mid-table side who are usually safe. They managed to keep Loic Rémy, despite strong interest from Lyon and Marseille in the summer. Nice rejected several approaches for Rémy and managed to sign the impressive Anthony Mounier, who was unhappy with a lack of playing time at Lyon. I personally had expected them to be safe once again, especially at this point in time. Things have been different though and they are looking over their shoulders rather than ahead of them. They have managed to score goals, but their defence hasn't been too impressive and they've conceded plenty as a result. I do, however, think Nice will be safe.

Toulouse last season performed extremely well. André-Pierre Gignac was firing on all cylinders and managed to finish top of the Ligue 1 Top Goalscorers chart by some margin from second-placed Guillaume Hoarau (whose season this campaign has stuttered due to injury concerns). They also managed to finish in the Europa League spots, pushing the much-fancied PSG side out of contention. All hopes of a repeat this season have been quashed with them in the lower half of the table. Gignac, who many expect will leave in the summer months, has not been given the delivery he enjoyed last season and his goals return has suffered as a result. New goalkeeper Yoann Péle, who replaced Cédric Carrasso as he left for Bordeaux, has been decent and is a player who can look to have some good seasons with Toulouse. What works in their favour is their goal difference. Unlike those around them, Toulouse have a positive goal difference (+3). Toulouse will be safe by some margin.

I haven't even given thought to Grenoble staying up. They have been to Ligue 1 this season what Le Havre were last season - the whipping boys; the also-rans; a guaranteed 3 points for their opponents. Grenoble had a hugely respectable season last year after their promotion from Ligue 2, but second-season syndrome seems to have hit the whole side as they have managed only one win and four draws in their 19 games so far...not good enough. Young star Sofiane Feghouli will most definitely be off at the end of the season as a result. Grenoble will be relegated.

In brief, the teams I believe will be relegated are Grenoble, Boulogne and one of either Saint Etienne or Le Mans. This season is becoming just as interesting as last year at both ends of the table which is a good omen for the future of the French game after some monotony!

[frshmn]

holy hell, wasn't expecting a couple volumes when i came in. insightful to say the least. not sure why, but i don't want Saint Etienne or Grenoble gone. Lyon however, need to relegate as soon as possible.

[mass debates]

I don't think Toulouse are really in any relegation trouble to be honest. Their league placing isn't the greatest but between them and St Etienne theres about an 9 point gap isn't there?

I agree Grenoble are down, they've been pretty woeful this season which is a shame cos i quite liked them. 8 points at the half way stage is something thats going to need a miracle to turn around. Boulogne too i feel are going down, they had that brilliant start to the season and i was wondering how long they would keep it up and the answer wasn't very long. Since then they've not had much in the way of form and i think they're on a downer now that will be quite hard to reverse. That just leaves one spot. Nice have a bit of a cushion over the others so whilst they aren't completely out of it yet i'd say their in a position of some safety, obviously that can all change but i feel they'll stay up. We are then left with Le Mans and St Etienne. I've got to favour St Etienne here just cos they are the big team and you have to feel they should be able to find something from somewhere to save their sorry assess, again. I don't know much about Le Mans other than they have Le Tallec amongst their squad and i'm not sure how influential Gervinho was for them last season but given his recent form for Lille i'm assuming he was a somewhat key player for them. St Etienne on the other hand have some talented individuals who quite clearly aren't being led right, the likes of Gelson Fernandes, Blaise Matuidi, Dimitri Payet and Pape Diakhaté shouldn't be in a relegation dog fight.

My tips to go down then: Grenoble, Boulogne and Le Mans.

This post has been edited by mass debates: 16 January 2010 - 08:21 PM

[J_746]

Toulouse will stay up no bother at all. They have the backing, managerial experience, playing experience and youth to be able to stay up. They won 3-1 tonight against Valenciennes. The way it's going though, some teams are finding form when they need it and other teams could slip downwards. I only put Toulouse there because they weren't expected to be this far down the table at this point. This time last year people were talking about their unrealistic title push, but they were there nonetheless. This season things are different, they're virtually out of Europa League contention and the most they'll be able to hope for is a high mid-table finish. The likes of Gignac and Sissoko will command high transfer fees when they undoubtedly leave in summer but I don't expect too much more from them this season or next.

Saint Etienne are struggling and doing absolutely nothing for their reputation. Casual fans are looking at them and thinking they're always in this kind of situation due to the way they've been playing in the past two months (besides the last two games; a 3-2 loss to Marseille and a 2-1 win at Grenoble, playing well in both games) and the fact that this is the second season in a row they've been in trouble. I didn't think replacing Perrin with Perrin's assistant was a good idea, though it would have saved them money nonetheless. They have the playing squad to be able to challenge for things in Ligue 1 but they don't have the managerial personnel to motivate the players into doing so. It's a real shame and somewhat of a waste of talent in some aspects.

[ASF]

Adrianus, on 16 January 2010 - 08:06 PM, said:

holy hell, wasn't expecting a couple volumes when i came in. insightful to say the least. not sure why, but i don't want Saint Etienne or Grenoble gone. Lyon however, need to relegate as soon as possible.

http://www.totalfootballforums.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif

I think it's point clear that Grenoble go down, no matter what. Only one win at home and none away, 8 points away from the 19th place, they are more than doomed.

I think that from the current 11th to 15th everyone will stay up. Those teams are used to end in the middle of the table, and even if they are involved in a relegation battle, I believe they won't get relegated.

Personally, the fight will be between Boulogne, Le Mans, St Etienne and Nice. Between the four, Boulogne are the weakest of the four and my tip to make company to Grenoble. They have struggled alot aswell (not as bad as Grenoble, but you can see there isn't much there to improve). From the remaining 3, Le Mans are used to be in the middle of these battles, but end up going down regularly.

So my choices to go down are: Grenoble, Boulogne and Le Mans.

This post has been edited by ASF: 22 January 2010 - 05:11 PM

[frshmn]

looking over as much as i could statistically, i've made my predictions about who i think should/would relegate this season. Grenoble are all but relegated already, so that's a given. alongside them, i could see Nice and Le Mans going down to Ligue 2. the reason why is because while Nice are an alright side i feel, they're completely out of it this term. going down to Ligue 1 would bring back confidence and hopefully some prize money for winning the 2nd table for them to come back with some signings and fairly better offense (scroring 20 goals in 20 matches is barely impressive, yet conceding 33 is woeful. i think a roster shakeup could be in order). and as for Le Mans, i'm failed to be impressed by them or their efforts. their most impressive match in my opinion was beating Valenciennes 2-1 being man down for the entire second half. other than that i don't really see any results that stand out for me. their top scorer (Tallec) only has six goals, and scoring hardly seems spread out throughout the rest of their side. scoring only 17 league goals so far just isn't going to cut it. and yes i'm baised in favor of Saint-Étienne, and i'm quite glad they beat Grenoble to get out of the immediate drop zone :P